This week's "iPhone Delay" hoax and the stock market mayhem it briefly caused said as much as anything about how much hype is being generated around Apple's foray into the mobile phone market. From my perspective, cell phones are squarely where it's at right now when it comes to consumer computing. Personal computers will continue to sell, but mobile phones are always with you, always connected, and advancing so rapidly in terms of design, processing power, and "What will they think of next?" applications that they really represent the near-term future when it comes to consumer electronics.

Seriously - you can watch DVR-recorded programs on your Smartphone if you've got a SlingBox. That's nutty. If nothing else, phones are super cool from a geek standpoint.

"Failure" and "success" are somewhat relative terms here. On the one hand, Apple's been on such a roll over the past few years that anything less than an industry-shaking revolution could be termed a failure. On the other hand, the global cell phone market is so large that el Steveo himself said at MWSF in January that he'd be happy to capture just 1% of the market in 2008. The market = Roughly 100 million handsets. 1% = 10 million units sold. Sounds good.

So without further ado ...

10. iPhone Will Fail Because... As cell phones go, it's already yesterday's news. No 3G data, locked to one carrier only, closed operating system (though that one could well change), 2MP camera ... why buy iPhone when a whole host of other models offer better specs? iPhone's EDGE data speeds pale in comparison to EV-DO or HSDPA when it comes to surfing and downloading, iPhone's camera is bested (on paper, anyway) by 3.2 and 5mp shooters available in Nokia and Sony Ericsson phones, and Symbian, Linux/Java, and Windows Mobile smartphones allow for expanded functionality via user-installable 3rd party apps.

9. iPhone Will Succeed Because... First of all, it's the new iPod. Second of all...
As cell phones go, it's innovative. Nobody else has Visual Voicemail, the whole "rotate the phone and the screen rotates automatically" thing is nifty, and the iPod and photo management capabilities look to be at least as advanced as anything out there (augmented by Apple's killer UI, see #3 on this list). Plus, one of the best mobile phone Web browsers currently available, Nokia's Series 60 browser, is based on Apple technology, so Apple's own browser will surely be killer.

8. iPhone Will Fail Because... Typing on a touchscreen sucks. Ever tried it? It's a lousy experience. Dialing on a touchscreen ain't much better, but at least it's quick. Texters buy advanced phones, everyone else buys skinny sliders. Texters want real buttons, and so do chained-to-email executives. Neither the Sidekick nor the BlackBerry crowd will dig iPhone for these reasons.

7. iPhone Will Succeed Because... Touchscreens are the future of mobile devices, as they're the only hardware flexible enough to handle a tiny computer's myriad uses. And iPhone's multitouch interface looks amazing. Nobody's really made a good touchscreen-only phone yet, and if anyone can it's Apple. Maybe iPhone's virtual keyboard will surprise everyone with it's utter awesome-ness, but if not the gesture-based interface will more than make up for it in terms of usability.

6. iPhone Will Fail Because... Apple doesn't know anything about mobile phones, and it's a cutthroat business. They simply can't compete with the big boys who've been doing this for years.

5. iPhone Will Succeed Because... That last reason is hogwash. Apple didn't know anything about mp3 players, either, and iPod's done alright. The big boys themseves freely admit that today's mobile phones are really small computers that also make phone calls (see Nokia's N-Series "Multimedia Computers") and Apple knows computers. The cell phone industry needs a good kick in the pants, anyway, especially in the States. I mean, how long has the RAZR been the most popular phone for now?

4. iPhone Will Fail Because... It's a gimmick, and an expensive one at that. A Sony Ericsson w810i takes 2 megapixel photos, browses the Web via EDGE, and plays music, and I can get it for free (or even make a few bucks up front if I search a little) with a Cingular contract (If I want Wi-Fi I can step up to any number of smartphones that boast the same specs as iPhone and then some.) I might have to actually push a button or two on the 810 instead of poking a screen to get my music to play or photos to transfer to my computer, but who cares? The photos look good, the music sounds good, and all of that flipping through cover art and squeezing photos with two fingers on the screen stuff is just bells and whistles anyway.

And I could shell out for the w810i, a 4 GB memory card (non-Sony branded, of course), and a good pair of canalbuds ... and take my wife out to dinner (somewhere nice) and still have spent less than the $499 Apple wants for the 4GB iPhone. And three months later when you're tired of flipping through album covers and turn Cover Flow off, anyway? My Etymotics will still sound better than your lousy Apple earbuds.

3. iPhone Will Succeed Because... Cell phones are in serious need of good user interfaces, and nobody does UI like Apple. Standard "carrier branded" interfaces like Verizon's are pretty bad. Newer unlocked phones and select carrier branded phones like Cingular's Nokia N75 are pretty good. But none have left me saying, "Wow, that was a near perfect experience." Windows Mobile is, well, Windows, and Series 60 on Nokia works quite well but is a little cold and not without flaws. UIQ 3 on Sony Ericsson smartphones (running atop Symbian OS, as Series 60 does) is the best UI out there - at first glance. It's got plenty of unsavory quirks and issues under the hood.

Apple has literally made a living on snazzy industrial design and user interfaces that blow the doors off of their competitors. I can't even count the number of times I've "threatened" to buy a Windows machine because they're cheaper, only stick with OS X because it's such a nicer ride. iPods don't play music and videos any better than all the other media players - but they're cooler and, in many cases, easier to use. It's hard to put your finger on what "cooler" means, but Apple's done it for now. It's easy to spot a good GUI and user experience, however. OS X is it for computing, and iPhone promises to be all that and a bag of chips for multimedia computing cell phones. Widgets? Cover Flow? Pinch to resize photo management? Some of it's window dressing, sure, but a lot of it looks to be solid ease of use. That's Apple's bread and butter.

2. iPhone Will Fail Because... $499 plus a two-year contract committment is too expensive for the American cell phone buyer. When you add up 24 months of voice and data services, that's a lot of money. Unlocked smartphones can be had at the same price point without a contract, and the new Helio Ocean does messaging, Web and multimedia for $300 (and can be had without a contract via MySpace). Plus, Helio offers 3G data via Sprint's network - who wants to spend half a grand on a phone that's restricted to EDGE?

1. iPhone Will Succeed Because... It's the future of iPod and possibly the future of Apple. Whether or not people really want their media players and phones combined, Apple's smart as a whip for debuting the long-awaited "6g Widescreen iPod" inside of their first foray into the cellular marketplace. A bunch of people will buy the thing just for the new iPod UI, not willing to wait for the inevitable stand-alone 6g iPod.

Beyond that, there's the whole always-connected handheld computing thing. Without getting into whether or not "always on" is a good thing for people to be, the fact remains that people are flocking to it. And there's a ton of information and entertainment value - and untapped potential - in a handheld, battery operated computer that's connected to the world via voice, data, and GPS. Navigation services, Google Maps, location-aware social networking, real-time stock/sports/news/weather updates, on the go Email/IM and access to the office? Just the tip of the iceberg.

Apple was ahead of their time with Newton, and some people are likening iPhone to a sort of resurrected Newton. In a way, that's an apt comparison. Ever used a Nokia Series 60 or Sony Ericsson UIQ phone? They're mini computers that are always in your pocket, always online. We've only just scratched the surface (to invoke another cliche) of what mobile connected computing can be. My biggest issue with the majority of cell phones right now is that they do many things halfway, or only one or two really well. If anyone can tie all of that potential - all of that connectivity, processing power, and ingenuity - together with great industrial design and a usable GUI, it's Apple.

Like iPod before it, iPhone may not really hit its stride until the second, third, or nano-th iteration. Sure, a bunch of would be trendsetters and early adopters will buy up a bunch of 1g iPhones. Success, to me, will be measured in whether or not iPhone sticks around long enough to reach the second or third generation and/or spin-off product that marks critical mass. iPhone is meant to be Apple's next franchise product. And I think it will be. It's just a matter of what iterations it goes through before it gets there.